Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 12.486051 14.306967 16.272127 18.547010 21.104182 23.886067 27.137683
2025-03-09 9.803814 12.264280 15.128952 18.695974 23.002706 28.017949 34.282718
2025-03-16 8.251391 10.928616 14.202002 18.471687 23.863598 30.413391 38.935257
2025-03-23 7.233949 10.080144 13.714024 18.650684 25.132537 33.297379 44.296036
2025-03-30 6.621653 9.637294 13.632168 19.249088 26.868975 36.761572 50.475592
2025-04-06 5.857316 8.887180 13.044309 19.082396 27.528468 38.806494 54.862163
2025-04-13 4.977795 7.869023 11.974934 18.130396 26.999629 39.167219 56.934805
2025-04-20 4.627382 7.577909 11.893472 18.539864 28.359468 42.140498 62.696064
2025-04-27 4.307952 7.295733 11.789640 18.888550 29.625799 45.017157 68.431468
2025-05-04 3.916593 6.859222 11.410007 18.781511 30.191565 46.890003 72.785410
2025-05-11 3.536713 6.401609 10.954471 18.511860 30.474293 48.334556 76.547208
2025-05-18 3.261367 6.088886 10.698255 18.525481 31.174313 50.410450 81.315263
2025-05-25 3.040253 5.853982 10.558331 18.728398 32.202853 53.067392 87.146442
2025-06-01 2.810750 5.582437 10.335209 18.776102 32.980879 55.370979 92.540129
2025-06-08 2.565917 5.257224 9.990393 18.585688 33.342172 57.013461 96.941188
2025-06-15 2.403155 5.067540 9.863901 18.753655 34.296667 59.630620 102.985152
2025-06-22 2.320006 5.021009 9.986370 19.359268 36.015945 63.552882 111.285160
2025-06-29 2.134286 4.755417 9.688038 19.190274 36.383608 65.255598 116.011805
2025-07-06 1.864392 4.293068 8.985659 18.233893 35.307454 64.481137 116.574568
2025-07-13 1.788089 4.222476 9.021712 18.645296 36.684041 67.913458 124.335570
2025-07-20 1.709797 4.139922 9.027129 18.995821 37.962682 71.222948 132.006602
2025-07-27 1.587245 3.949267 8.803201 18.888216 38.387298 73.054687 137.191087
2025-08-03 1.458405 3.731522 8.507057 18.617192 38.486180 74.306179 141.398935